More Thoughts on Mt. Fuji’s Risks

Read in Japanese (日本語 ) and Spanish.

 

Dear Mr. Matsumura,

I read with interest your article on the risk of Mt. Fuji’s possible eruption in the not so far future. Such a scenario is not only possible, but according to the experts it is highly probable. Consequently, all measures should be taken to avert any unnecessary risks to the population in the nearby region. This includes protection of all nearby communities, industrial facilities, hospitals, transport and communication infrastructure, etc. Each of these aspects has its own features and requires a different type of protection and safeguards. All of them should be carefully studied and protected, but also the combination of their risks must also be taken into account.

The number of towns and villages around Mt. Fuji appalls me. I don’t know anything about land use planning in Japan, but given the historical information available it seems obvious that the necessary precautions should have been taken before authorizing the construction of residences, industrial facilities, including nuclear power plants. I imagine that the emergency plans must be drawn in the event of an eruption, and this should include evacuation of civilians, protection of infrastructure and critical potentially dangerous facilities of all kinds. Your article draws the attention to the risk of a nuclear accident triggered by an eruption, which is a legitimate concern. It seems to me that a greater hazard would be the lack of a rational plan to handle the emergency, be it nuclear or of any other sort.… Continue reading

Japan’s Fault: The Risks of Mt. Fuji’s Eruption and Nuclear Power

Read in Japanese (日本語), Spanish, German, and French.

by Akio Matsumura

 

Please see this response from Jorge Zanelli, theoretical physicist  and former head of a presidential commission to assess the nuclear option for Chile.

 

What if Mt. Fuji erupts? The question seems random and provocative, but it is one we should be asking.

The Great Tohoku Earthquake that caused the Fukushima nuclear power plants disaster in March 2011 has caused scientists to worry that Mt. Fuji could erupt in the next two years.

Several indicators – increased pressure in the magma chamber, receding lake water levels nearby, cracks in the crust – signal that the volcano, dormant for 300 years, has been affected by recent seismic activity (Japan Today). A study released July 27 by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology in Japan concluded that Mt. Fuji has erupted 43 times in total over the past 2,000 years, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported.

There is a strong precedent for large earthquakes (>M9.0) causing volcanic eruptions within three years:

  • December 26, 2004 at Sumatra, Indonesia. Earthquake M9.2 –Talang Volcano erupted April 12, 2005. And Tangkuban Perahu at West Java, Indonesia erupted March 13, 2005.
  • March 27, 1964 at Alaska, USA. Earthquake M9.2 – Redoubt Volcano erupted January 24, 1966.
  • May 22, 1960 at Valdivia, Chile. Earthquake M9.5 – Cordon Caulle erupted May 24, 1960.

 

No one can predict with accuracy when an eruption will occur, but to ignore the possibility that an eruption might occur — whether in 1, 5, 20, or 100 years — is dangerous and irresponsible.… Continue reading